Directions of the Energy Transition in the Policy of Global Oil and Gas Companies

—Despite the ongoing geopolitical crisis, which has replaced a series of external shocks to energy markets during the COVID pandemic, the problems of global climate change remain the focus of attention of governments and energy companies. The article discusses the key directions of the strategies of oil majors and smaller players in the energy market at the upcoming stage of decarbonization, as well as the features of the transformation of gas and LNG companies in the context of growing instability. Technological imperatives for companies, differentiated in the regional and structural-industry context, are determined. The main vectors of transformation processes are indicated.

GEOECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES OF ENERGY TRANSITION. IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD ECONOMY

The article deals with geoeconomic and geopolitical challenges for the further development of the world economy in the conditions of the energy transition designated by a number of countries of the world. The authors carried out a detailed analysis of the trends in the development of “green” energy in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, identified the main directions of changes in the state energy policy of developed and developing countries. It is established that the accelerated and forced transition to renewable energy sources had a negative impact on the dynamics of economic development of a number of countries of the world. The authors make the assumption that the non-alternative and accelerated transition to “green” energy, actively promoted by developed countries (EU, USA and other OECD countries), together with a sharp decline in investment in traditional hydrocarbon energy sources, can lead to the formation of significant imbalances in the global economy, loss of predictability of the development of global and regional energy and energy markets. In addition, the authors pay special attention to the role of rare earth metals in the energy transition, whose markets are characterized by high monopolization in favor of China. Together with the global economic crisis, which was caused by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the trends of the accelerated energy transition have significantly worsened the stability of the energy systems of many countries of the world. Taking into account these factors, the authors have analyzed the strategic consequences for states engaged in intensive decarbonization of their national economies and the fuel and energy complex. At the same time, the authors noted that the EU’s long-term plans to increase the share of hydrogen energy in the energy balance open up new prospects for the Russian Federation, which has extensive opportunities for the production and export of hydrogen. The importance of the development of domestic technologies in the field of hydrogen energy was noted. In addition, taking into account the development trends of the energy transition, the importance of the development of the rare earth industry in the Russian Federation to reduce the impact of imports of rare earth elements from China was noted. © 2022, Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Globalization and the World Order in the New Realities of the Post-COVID World.

The contours of the accelerated transformation of the architecture of the world order under the influence of numerous crisis shocks associated with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 are considered. The trends of globalization‒deglobalization and the growing bipolarity of the world order, which is viewed as a consequence of the exacerbation of the US‒China confrontation, are assessed. China's approaches to significant structural shifts in economic priorities are analyzed. In conclusion, proposals are formulated for changes in the Russian economic policy.

ENERGY TRANSITION AND POST-COVID WORLD

The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated global economic, technological and social transformation, including the energy sector, and has given the impetus to energy transition from organic fuels to clean energy sources. Though oil will remain an important energy resource in the global energy balance, in the long run renewables will become the leading energy. The European Union and China are the leaders in implementation of energy transition strategies from fossil to clean energy. The transformation in the energy market has affected dramatically the relations between producers and consumers, who now actively determine the consumption trends (for example, green energy, electric vehicles, etc.). Distributed generation and blockchain in power industry enable the consumers to play an active part in the electricity production and distribution chains. Digital transformation and climate agenda are changing the structure of energy business from vertically integrated companies to knowledge-intensive networks. Investors almost unanimously vote for renewable energy. The largest oil and gas companies change their long-term strategies and transform into energy holdings with the prevailing share of renewables in the business structure. Hydrogen attracts particular attention as a promising energy source. The EU plans to develop hydrogen transport infrastructure. For its part, Russia has the ability to supply hydrogen to the European market through the existing gas pipelines. Coronacrisis accelerated the development of online services, artificial intelligence, and distant work. Education and telemedicine received a powerful impetus for further development..ducation becomes continuous process in the digital world. New educational ecosystems in which skills and competencies are worked out on an interdisciplinary basis are formed. Digital transformation meets the expectations of the generation Z, which in the coming decades will become economically active and will dominate in social and economic agenda. Digitalization, adaptive nature-like technologies, environmentally friendly energy resources, flexible horizontal network between market participants are already a post-COVID reality.

PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND POWER PRODUCTION COOPERATION AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The article examines the trends that hinder the development of international energy and economic cooperation in 2018-2020. These trends have been particularly exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting global economic and energy crisis. Falling demand for oil has affected the decline in world commodity prices. Competition between oil exporters has intensified amid falling demand. As a result, international energy cooperation mechanisms in the energy sector have come under serious pressure. The dynamics of relations between the world's largest economic centers: China, the United States, the European Union, and the Eurasian space have become another aspect of the aggravation of imbalances and confrontational trends in the global economy. The strengthening of trade contradictions between the United States and China in 2018-2019 negatively affected global economic growth and the dynamics of major manufacturing indices. In turn, the events of 2020 clearly confirmed that the contradictions between China and the United States are of a deep structural nature. These contradictions exacerbate the polarization of the global economic system and cannot be overcome by concessions and agreements exclusively in the field of investment and trade. Against this background, the real effectiveness of measures taken in the EU to deal with the economic consequences of both the pandemic and Brexit is questionable, and can only be reliably assessed after a sufficiently long time. The authors show that in contrast to the situation in the EU, the EAEU has tendencies to further strengthen economic, political and energy cooperation. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic crisis and external challenges, the Eurasian economic Union not only stands up to them, but also continues to actively work to unite the Union's countries, as well as improve their energy and economic security. The authors offer their vision of further development of international economic and energy cooperation in the post-pandemic period, taking into account the positive trends in the development of the Eurasian space.